• Innovative Strategies That Create More Profits

Different Ways To Raise Funds For Your Startup

 The essential information you need to plan your investment raising challenge. Start early, takes lots of time — 3-12 months depending on the type of funding seeking. It will be a challenge, but the rewards can be significant.

You have to ask yourself if you are ready to raise funds

  1. What do you need the money for research, product development, employees, marketing, etc.?
  2. How much money will you need and how long will it last?
  3. Are you looking for loans or selling equity to raise funds?
  4. How long will I have to repay the loans or when will equity investors want to get their return?
  5. What does my credit situation look like (personal and business)?

Regardless of how you plan to raise capital, make a list of potential investors on day one, and keep adding to that list every day (angel investors, venture capital investors, or potential crowdfunding investors.

Here are some of the ways you can raise funds: We will primarily focus on Crowdfunding, Angel Investors, and Venture Capital Firms. Here are some of the ways you can raise funds:

Bootstrap your development. Are you able to use personal savings and loans?

Family and Friends. Are they able to help in the short-term or long-term?

Vendor Credit from suppliers. If you are working with suppliers, you may be able to get an extended payment option.

Business Credit Cards. A good source when you have to buy things, but it can get expensive if you are getting cash advances.

Invoice Financing. You receive money based on your invoices and business activity and repay the loans when your clients pay you. The rates can be very high.

Equipment Financing. If you are buying equipment, you could get a loan based on the value of the material often fro the equipment company itself.

Business Line of Credit. This gives you a way to pay for items as you need them and pay back the money when you want. This can be less expensive than Business Credit Card programs.

SBA (SmallBusiness Association) loans. They have small microloans available by matching you up with a bank. They also have more jumbo loans you can apply for but the time required to get final approval can be very long.

Incubator and Accelerator Programs usually conduct several programs a year. You apply to be a participant in one of their 12-week programs. They match you up with mentors to help you with the information you will need to develop your product and help you prepare for a presentation to investors. They often give the participants a small amount of money to work with during the program, and they generally get about 6% of the startup’s equity, but there are exceptions.

Crowdfunding. There are two types — one where you raise money by basically “pre-selling your product” to the crowd. These are platforms like Indiegogo and Kickstarter. People who are interested in the product or service can “buy” the products or services and get a promised delivery date. The buyer will also be one of the first people to get the product.

The second type of crowdfunding is when you raise money through debt or equity or a combination of both. Debt funding pays a dividend, or the debt can be convertible into stock based on a defined event. Equity funding is for shares of stock and ownership in the company. You do not have to be an accredited investor to this debt or equity. However, the SEC limits the amount you can buy based on your income.

Angel Investors are accredited investors (have a salary of $200,000 per year or 1 million dollars of assets not counting their home.) They are often corporate executives and often former founders themselves. They are generally interested in the product or industry, and often want to be involved in the company in some way, Investments typically range from $10,000 to $100,000 per investor. (and angel investment clubs which are formal groups with rules and syndicates which are often Special Purpose legal entities to invest in a specific investment )

Angels are all accredited investors (have a salary of $200,000 per year or 1 million dollars of assets not counting their home.) They are often corporate executives and often former founders themselves. They are generally interested in the product and industry, and ofter want to be involved in the company in some way, Investments typically range from $10,000 to $100,000 per investor.

Venture Capital Firms find and invest in high-growth companies through one of their investment funds. The money for the funds, in addition to the Venture Firms’ own funds, also includes funds from other accredited investors, funds, pension plans, and corporations. They are looking for investments that will pay them a return in 4-7 years. The amount they will invest can be very significant, and will generally be investors for additional capital raising rounds. Due diligence is very extensive, and the time required to receive the funds could take months or up to a year. They will also want a significant amount of stock (in various forms) and a seat on the Board of directors.

We will get into more depth on these fundraising methods in future articles.

Why Do People Invest In Crowdfunded Companies?

People invest in crowdfunding for more reasons than just financial benefit.  In this article, we will break down a few different types of investor motivation. If you are pursuing investment crowdfunding, it is essential to know the mindset of all the types of potential investors and why they may want to invest.   The team at Silicon Prairie has identified about 14 different motivations people have.

We will discuss the most common ones.

Financial Social Tit-for-Tat Identity
Product Employment Money Talks Same Fox-hole

 

Financial

Return on Investment (ROI) and financial gain is an obvious motivation. To satisfy this urge, you will need visible ROI shown in your financials, combined with demonstrations that you are trustworthy, credible, and experience.  The fear of missing out (FOMO) on a tempting long-shot is another common financial motivation. No one wants to miss out on the next Apple, Amazon, Facebook, or Uber. Getting funding is about being able to communicate your vision and size of opportunity passionately.  Financially motivated investors may be looking to diversify their investments. Look for people who have all their eggs in one basket. In this case, highlight how investments in small companies or different industries may complement their portfolio.

Social

Even without an attractive ROI, some people will support you because they want to demonstrate person affection and support. Here you communicate your authentic need and gratitude and clearly express recognition and appreciation. Don’t forget to look outside of your immediate friends and consider people who may be in groups, clubs, or teams with you.

Tit-for-Tat

An overlooked generator of support is a sense of fairness or guilt. Be careful not to abuse the goodwill of your circles; however, if you are a person who always “gives first,” Now is the time to call in the chips. Think about it, do you still buy cookies from the scout-parent in your office? Get called on moving day? Pet sit regularly?

Identity (Sense of Self)

People may invest in personal factors that pull on heart-warming purposes or use their investment to make a statement. Individuals will spend money to buy displays of wealth. Being able to claim, “I invest in several startups in town” or “I invest in real estate” may be enough motivation for some people.

Product

Some people are desperate for a product to exist and will invest just for the ability to purchase a product/solution. They may need it but not have the ability to do it themselves. Some examples include retail stores, equipment, and software.

Employment

Some investors care passionately about small businesses, seeing them as the best source of jobs in the community. They may care about economic growth, demographics, or geography. These investors tend to be community activists, revitalization committees, or workers at the business who are “buying the factory” to keep their job.

Money Talks

Put- up or shut up.”

Supporters may invest if they consider a project important. This supporter will need validation that you share the same beliefs on a topic and want to see behavior that shows your goals are morally aligned. Show how you are “living the Mission” and how things change when your project succeeds.

Same Fox-Hole

These investors have serious overlap between your success and their success. Your suppliers are natural allies. This relationship is in many industries, so keep an open mind to see how this can apply to your business.  Example: If your restaurant doubles capacity, your suppliers could double their sales for you. Secondly, they become investors in a successful business with a solid ROI. Finally, they receive a perk such as pre-paid catering for a discount.

Keep in mind; these are just some of the motivations investors may have. Everyone is different, and it is crucial to figure out their “why” the best you can.

    • What is the mindset of your potential customers?
    • What is your story?
    • Does your story match that mindset?
    • Will your targeted customers believe your story?

Elements of A Pitch Deck

The following is a basic, generic pitch deck. You will need to modify it to fit your company, product or service, and situation.

Slide One: Name. Logo, contact information, and web site. You can add a tag line.

Slide Two: Company Overview: create the context or frame for the company and what the company does (why you exist)

Slide Three: What problem do you solve.  How big is the problem? How does customer benefit? Your competition (direct or indirect competitors)

Slide Four:  Product/Service (photo of product). Describe but cannot be more than 25% of the presentation, Barrier to entry (clinical studies, trade secrets, patents. Special knowledge, etc.). Your industry connections( advisors)

Slide Five: Business model. How do you make money? Revenue model and benefits. What stage are you at now. Are you ready to scale? Where are you going?  When will you be breakeven?

Revenue Model (separate slide) Breakdown of 5-year proform. Amount of funds raised and the amount needed to scale business, and where that will get you.

Slide Six: Market: Total market, addressable market, initial target market. Future markets. How you will get, keep and grow customers in these markets.

Slide Seven: Future milestones like optimization of the e-Commerce web site, new products, key relationships with partners. Include any risks you see and how you will handle them

Slide Eight: Core Team. Include pictures so they can see you. Highlight education, experience, Mention how the team will expand.

Slide Nine: Exit Strategy. Investors want their money in 3-7 years. How will they get it? Sell to major company or enormous VC fund, or one of your partners and when (revenue size, development stage, competition, etc. )could use examples.

Slide Ten: The Offer. Looking to raise $X million for X% of the company, type of stock or bond, $XXk minimum investment.

Slide Eleven: Summary. Thanks for the opportunity. I hope you will help us (extend and save lives). Any Questions?

An alternative way to get the insight you need to create your strategy

 An alternative way to get the insight you need to create your strategy  

This is an alternate method of making your diagnosis. The information here is from Christopher J Frank and Paul Magnone and their book, “Drinking from the Fire Hose,” which is about making smarter decisions without drowning in information.

The problem today is the amount of information that is available and continues to expand at an incomprehensible pace. I had a friend who, in 1948, was one of the very early computer programmers. At that time, it cost 1 million dollars to produce and store one megabit (MB) of information. Today, the estimates are that by 2020, we will be generating 1,7 MB of data every second for every person on earth. That’s a lot of data to go through looking for an answer.

The good news is that most of that data is irrelevant. Frank and Magnone have created a way to use only seven questions to get the data you need to answer your question. That section is about another way to diagnosis a problem or opportunity to create a strategy that will set you apart from your competitors.

This method is one of several approaches you can use to diagnose the problem. You can use one or all of them. That goes for the seven questions, as well. You can use them all or use the ones you need to get your answer.

I encourage you to look at this method as one way to make your diagnosis. It offers many benefits, including:

This system of questioning helps you recognize the difference between data that measures and data that informs.

Using these questions will help optimize what you do and what you can do with the time you have.

These questions make it easier for you to zero in on the essential information you need to make timely, practical decisions and inspire others on your team to do the same.

  • It shows you how to divide data into two fundamental groups: data that measures and data that informs.
  • Data that measures tracks performance by assessing the impact or by tracking the market.
  • Data that informs builds understanding, tests concepts, and strategies, and shapes decisions

We often spend way too much money and time on data that measures and not enough on data that informs. This method and these seven questions bring a big-picture perspective to the problem and make it possible to turn this information into useful insights.

Following is a summary of the seven questions. The seven items are divided into three parts: one, Discovery, two, Insight and three, Delivery.

Discovery.  Here is where you gather information, but only focus on the information you’ll need.

That means limiting the amount of data you gather by using question

1. “What is the one, vital piece of information you need to move forward?” This is the Essential Question.  If the information does not relate to or help you answer that question, you don’t need it.

2. The second question in discovery is, “What is your customer’s Northstar?’ Only gather data that w you to interpret and understand your customer’s needs, wants, and behavior in absolute and relative terms.

3. The third question is, “Should you believe in the squiggly line?’ In other words, how relevant are short-term movements to your long-term objectives? Learn to identify long-term trends that coincide with your long-term interests. Also, triangulate results using absolute position changes over time and comparative measures (e.g., year-over-year).

It takes time to shift your focus from amassing data to finding and interpreting only the data needed to answer the Essential Question and move your business forward. As you can see, this limits the volume of information you have to gather to only information you can use to solve the problem.

Insight. These questions lead you to fresh insights and allow you to see complex situations clearly.

4. Question four is, “What surprised you? Here you are looking for game-changing information, not confirmation bias. Game-changing information is always a surprise. Look at the numbers on the page, not the numbers you expected. Anomalies in the data are more likely to reveal opportunities than numbers that conform to expectations. Use your intuition and natural skepticism to look for surprises.

5. Question five is, “What does the lighthouse reveal?”  As you navigate through the useful information, you need to know which numbers symbolize the rocks in your path. Define the criteria that are meaningful to your business. But because things are changing all the time, watch for information that could be damaging. For example, what kind of data, numbers, or information do you need to keep out of trouble?

6 Question six is, “Who are your swing voters?” Most companies focus on their delighted customers or critical customers who will never become customers. But, categorizing, segmenting and targeting your swing voters is the most effective way to drive growth at the lowest cost. Segment your neutral customers into learners, neutrals, or defectors. Profile each segment so you can engage it. Then target each segment with a dedicated message. This does not mean you ignore your most loyal customers, but you can get trapped if loyal customers are your only focus.

Delivery.

7. Question seven is, “What? So What? Now What? These questions are different from the first six. This question goes from gathering and analyzing information to communicating results. This question uses a simple, pragmatic framework to deliver the results of your study. Very simply, it is finding the data that matters (diagnosis), determining what the information means (insight), and creating cohort action plans based on that meaning. Answer the Essential Business Question and demote the rest of the data, methodology, and supporting materials to the appendix.

An alternative diagnosis with an emphasis on creating value vs. competitors

An alternative way to do your diagnosis with an emphasis on creating value vs. competitors

This alternative diagnosis method comes from Renee Mauborgne and W. Chan Kim from their book, “Blue Ocean Strategy”. The idea is to create a blue ocean (new market you own) and make the competition irrelevant. Blue oceans are mostly created within red oceans.

A red ocean is a market where the parameters are known and the rules set so you are forced to compete for temporary gain, usually by giving up some margin. But, when supply exceeds demand, you have to create new ways to compete, hence create a blue ocean.

The basic idea is to create value innovation. Creating value without innovation will not make you stand out. Innovation without value tends to be technology-driven, market pioneering, futuristic and often going beyond what buyers are ready to accept and pay for. 

To create new value, you first need to find cost savings by eliminating and reducing the factors an industry competes on. Buyer value is created by raising and creating elements the industry has never offered. Over time, costs are reduced further as scale economies kick in due to higher sales and greater value.

There are four key questions you need to ask to challenge an industry’s strategic, logic and business model.

  1. Which of the factors that the industry takes for granted should be eliminated?
  2. Which factors should be reduced well below the industry’s standard?
  3. Which factors should be raised well above the industry’s standard?
  4. Which factors should be created that the industry has never offered?

Most companies focus on improving their competitive position within a strategic group (BMW vs Mercedes, both competing in the luxury care business). Rarely do sellers think consciously about how their customers make tradeoffs across alternative industries? 

Here are a couple of examples.  What if movie theatres offered a babysitting service at the movie theater? Curves, the women’s fitness company, was seen as entering an oversaturated market. However, it tapped into an untapped market of women struggling and failing to keep in shape and because it was for women, took the advantage away from traditional health clubs and home exercise programs. 

There are six systematic patterns one can use to reconstruct market boundaries and create blue oceans.

Pattern One. Look across alternative industries

One competes with other firms in its own industry but also with companies in other industries that produce alternative products or services. Alternatives are a broader category than substitutes (e.g., for personal finances, people can buy a software package, hire a CPA or simply use pencil and paper which are substitutes vs. restaurants that also show movies are alternatives. What are the alternative industries in your industry?

Pattern Two: Look across strategic groups within industries

A strategic group is a group of companies within an industry that pursue a similar strategy. They can be ranked usually by two dimensions; price and performance (VW competes with Toyota and BMW competes with Mercedes). The key to creating a blue ocean across existing strategic groups is to break out of this narrow tunnel vision by understanding which factors determine customers’ decisions to trade up or down from one group to another. For example, women did not care for the fancy health club or restaurants, they didn’t want men to see their imperfect bodies as it made them uncomfortable. A new opportunity.

Pattern Three: Look Across the chain of buyers

In most industries, competitors generally converge around a common definition of who the target buyer is. In reality, there is a chain of “buyers” who are directly or indirectly involved in the buying decision. Also, the purchasers who could differ from the users and influencers as well.

Challenging an industry’s conventional wisdom about which buyer group to target can lead to the discovery of a new blue ocean ( the trucking company that becomes the transportation company for example.)

Path Four: Look across complementary Product and service offerings

Untapped value is often hidden in complementary products and services. The key is to define the total solution buyers see when they chose a product or service. A simple way to do this to think about what would happen before, during and after your product is used (babysitting and parking the car are needed before people can go to the movies or the cost of the car plus maintenance).

Path Five: Look across functional or emotional appeal to buyers

Some industries compete principally on price and function largely based on calculations of utility and their appeal is rational Other industries compete largely on feelings where their appeal is emotional. Yet most products or services are rarely intrinsically one or the other. When companies are willing to challenge the functional-emotional orientation of their industry, they often find new market space (for example, Swatch transformed the functionally driven budget watch industry into an emotionally driven fashion statement.)

Path Six: Look across time

All industries are subject to external trends that affect their businesses over time.  Most companies who are aware of a trend, pace their own actions to keep up with the trend. But key strategies rarely come from projecting the trend itself and how it will impact customers and change the business model. Don’t keep up with the trend, look across time — from its market value today to the value it might deliver tomorrow. This can actively shape your future and create a blue ocean. 

Here are some questions to ponder. What trends have a high probability of impacting your industry, be irreversible and have a clear trajectory? How will these trends impact your industry? What would the trend look like if taken to its logical conclusion?

We will have more articles in the future about creating blue ocean strategies but this article should give you plenty to think about for now.   

 

Diagnosis: Understanding your industry structure and it’s competitive forces

Diagnosis: Understanding your industry structure and the competitive forces driving profits

A good place to start your diagnosis is with an overall understanding of your industry and the forces driving prices and therefore profitability. The concepts are taken primarily from Michael Porters’ book, “The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy.” Mr. Porter is a professor at Harvard. The book is years old but the material is still relevant. This information will get you off on a good footing for diagnosing the problem.

Every industry is different but the underlying drivers of profitability are the same in every industry. These five forces will help you:

Asses industry attractiveness

See how trends will affect industry competition

Determine which industries a company should compete in

Visualize how companies can position themselves for success

Anticipate shifts in competition

See how industry structure evolves

Find better strategic positions within the industry

Following is a summary of the five forces that shape strategy.

One. The Bargaining Power of Buyers

How buyers can use their clout to force prices down or demand more services at existing prices. Therefore, capturing more value for themselves. Power is highest when buyers are large compared to competitors, products are undifferentiated and represent a significant cost to buyers, and there are few switching costs.

Two. The Bargaining Power of Suppliers

Powerful suppliers can use their negotiating leverage to charge higher prices or demand more favorable terms which lower industry profitability and switching suppliers can be difficult, expensive or time-consuming.

Three. The Threat Of New Entrants

This threat can keep prices down and cause the company to spend more to retain customers. Entry brings more supply and lower prices. The threat of entry puts a cap on the profit potential of an industry. The threat depends on the barriers to entry, economies of scale, cost of building awareness, government restrictions, etc.

Four. The Threat of Substitute Products or Services

When a new product or service meets the same basic customer need in a different way, industry profitability suffers. However, it depends on the price-performance trade-offs.

Five. Rivalry Among Existing Competitors

If rivalry is intense, it drives down prices or dissipates profits by raising the cost of competing companies. A rivalry tends to be fierce if:

Competitors are numerous or roughly equal in size and market position

Industry growth is slow

There are high fixed costs which are incentives for price-cutting

Exit barriers are high (e.g., high debt load)

Rivals are highly committed to the industry.

This analysis will give you a good foundation to move on to other analyses like the next one on Creating Blue Ocean strategies.

 

Insights, not data or information lead to better strategic decisions.

Insights, not data or information lead to better strategic decisions.

 

We know that strategy starts with a comprehensive diagnosis of the problem, which will lead to insights. At that point, you have to make a series of important decisions. To start, you have to decide how much data do you need before you can make a decision? If all you did was a search on Google, you could get millions of articles, etc. The problem is you can’t read them all, and you would have to verify the information in each item.

The mindset of most executives is that you need lots of data on whatever the problem is before you can make a decision. That may be true, but what data? Christopher Frank and Paul Magnone wrote a book on “making decisions without drowning in information” that may change your mind about data, information, insights, and decisions.

They state that you need to start your quest for data by asking, “What is the essential question you need to answer to make the decision.”  In other words, you only need data that will help you answer that essential question. Therefore, you should be able to eliminate most of the data. The data or information may be interesting but not relevant. The question will tell you what data you need.

Once you have your information, you can begin triangulating this information. This triangulation will enable you to gain insights that you did not have before, answer the question, and make better decisions.

In summary, start the decision-making process by asking the essential question you have to answer to make the decision. Gather only the data that relates to that question. Compare the data points to get the information you need. Then, by triangulating the relevant information available, you will get the real insights you need to make the decision.  

You may have to rethink your mindset about what data you need and how much data you need to make carefully thought out timely decisions.  

 

 

Why Do Some Strategies Fail?

Why Do Some Strategies Fail?

 

If you ask leadership why strategies fail, you will get a lot of reasons including market conditions, economic instability, and a plethora of macro problems that would derail any strategy. However, before giving any specific examples, you have to remember that the initial strategy, those initial insights that resulted from your diagnosis, are hypotheses and have to be tested and verified like any other hypotheses. Remember, the J C Penny example and not testing and validating their hypothesis. Here are some common reasons why some strategies can fail.

Mistaking goals for strategy

Professor Rumelts mentions a CEO who defined his company’s strategy as  “pushing until we get there.” For him, the strategy was a goal, which is a common mistake.

Overly complicated strategic objectives

Objectives must spell out the particular steps needed to achieve the strategy. A common issue is a strategy that is overloaded with objectives. A strategy is a simple statement like Apple’s Think Different. Don’t put together a list of objectives that would take years to achieve.

Failure to identify the main problem

Defining the problem can be difficult. It may be challenging to recognize or facing the real problem that may be complicated, or when several people are involved, each person could have a different view and definition of the problem. When the problem isn’t apparent, the strategy will start in the wrong direction.

Fluffy language

Rumelt defines fluff as a type of nonsense hidden as strategic opinions or concepts. Rather than telling the obvious with clear and simple to understand words, people sometimes use obscure and inflated words, intricate drawings, and statements to appear analytic and knowledgeable.

This point is more of a reminder that not everyone has the same definition of a word or concept. How many definitions of “America” would you get from ten people, ten?

The cohesiveness of the team

To be successful, the entire team has to be on board with the strategy; This takes constant communication with team members. Also, it is essential that any new hires agree and support the strategy before they are hired. It is too hard and too disruptive to try to convince them after they are employed.

Overconfidence in one’s decision-making ability

We all make decisions based on our belief that we are right, Yet, if you were asked to estimate, with 90% certainty, something you were not familiar with like the population of Los Angeles, your estimate would probably not be correct or the estimate would be so wide it would be worthless. Sometimes we need to ask ourselves if we are right or think we are right. Remember, until tested an verified, our strategy is an estimate with hopefully 90% certainty.

There are lots of other reasons why strategies fail. It takes a lot of time and hard work to create a successful strategy, but, it’s worth it.  

 

Six Different Ways To Diagnose Your Problem

Six Different Ways To Diagnose Your Problem

 

In this article, we want to talk about different ways to diagnosis a problem in our hunt for insight into the solution to the problem. There are several useful approaches one can use. Some are very well known and others may be unfamiliar,

Depending on your problem, you might want to pick one and go through it step by step, or you can choose the one you like. My suggestion is to look at and use all of the parts of each one.

The more information, contrasts, and comparison and patterns, you can get the better your chances of coming up with the perfect insight.

Here is a one-sentence summary of each of the methods you can use to diagnose your problem. We will cover each one in separate, future articles.  

The first one will focus more on analyzing the structure of your industry and developing a strategy of maximizing profits.

The second will look at analyzing a very competitive environment and creating a strategy that helps you create a unique position or even changes the definition of your industry.  

The third and fourth analyses focus on how you can get more creative in your analysis of strategy and innovation.

The fifth is a different way to look at data and information to keep from being overwhelmed with data when you only have to gather the data you need to answer the essential question you need to solve the problem and make a decision.  

The sixth and last diagnosis I want to present is one of my favorites. It is visual thinking. About 40% of people learn better using visual information. This method is problem-solving with a little fun tossed in.

We will begin discussing each of these methods in upcoming, separate articles so we can go deeper into each one of them. However, we need to cover a few additional things first like why do some strategies fail.

Getting To An Agreed Definition Of The Problem

 

In the last article, we ended with a definition of a strategy as a simple description of how your company will exploit the opportunity you have identified and do so in a way that captures a significant share of your selected market and at the same time, puts your competitors at a disadvantage in this market.  

Our research shows that of all the problems businesses have, one of the most critical is a clearly articulated strategy. About 80% of CEOs say that strategy is very important. But, only about 50 % have a strategy. Many CEOs said they had a strategy but when asked what it was, they would give a mission statement or define goals.

In an executives study by PwC, the consulting firm found that 79% were concerned their strategy was not clear, and 73% though their strategy was not meaningfully different from the competition.

That study also found that companies that got their strategies right are 3X as likely to report above-average growth and 2X as likely to report above-average profits.

Before we go deeper into creating a strategy, I want to say a little more about the kernel we talked about last time.  A strategy is more than the kernel, but if the kernel is absent or missing, you will have a problem. Once you determine the kernel, it is much easier to create, describe, and evaluate a strategy. It allows you to approach the task like a doctor who makes a diagnosis, then describes a therapeutic approach, and then prescribes a solution or prescription.

In business, we are often talking about change and competition, but sometimes the problem could be internal to the organization itself.

Starbucks is an example.  In 2008, they were experiencing flat or declining same-store traffic growth and lower margins. So they began to question: how serious was this situation? Are we reaching saturation? Were their opportunities for expansion overseas? Was their differentiation vanishing? Management people came up with different definitions of the problem and consequently, different diagnoses.

Here is the problem. None of these problem definitions, by themselves, was actionable. In other words, each suggested a range of things that might be done. Also, none of these diagnoses could be proved to be correct, and each was a judgment about which issue was predominant.

Therefore, the diagnosis was a judgment about the meaning of facts. What is a fact? Understanding what a fact means is a critical discussion, and we will talk about it in another article. However, for our purposes here, we will say a physical thing, a bridge, a ballpark, etc. is an indisputable fact. If the fact is not physical, it is a fact because of an aggregated consensus of a  group of people who believe it is a fact. For example, 49% of people think George is smart, and 51% of people think George is dumb.

Consequently, Starbuck’s problem was “ill-structured” (per Richard Rumelt), meaning no one could be sure how to define the problem or the actions that would be required to solve the problem.

Therefore, because the problem was not well defined, the diagnosis or the conclusions or solutions could not be put into a real strategy based on observed facts. More analysis was required, or they had to use a diagnosis based on an educated guess.

With an explicit agreement as to the problem, your diagnosis should replace the overwhelming complexity of the problem with a simple story that calls attention to the critical aspects of the problem.

A simplified and agreed-upon definition of the problem that makes sense of the situation allows you to engage in further problem-solving.