All companies are subject to external trends that affect their business over time. Think of the rapid rise of the cloud or the global movement toward protecting the environment. Looking at these trends with the proper perspective can show you how to create Blue Ocean opportunities.
Most companies adopt incrementally and somewhat passively as events unfold. Managers need to focus on projecting the trend itself, whether it’s the emergence of new technology or significant regulatory changes. They ask in which direction the technology will evolve, how it will be adopted, and whether it will become scalable—the pace of their activities to keep up with the trends they’re tracking.
The key insights in the Blue Ocean strategy arise from business insights into how the direction will change customer value and impact its business model. Looking across time, from the value delivered today to the value it might provide tomorrow, managers can shape their future and lay claim to a new Blue Ocean.
Looking across time is perhaps more complex than the previous approach. It’s impossible to predict the future, but it can be a disciplined approach. Our objective is to find insights into trends that are observable today.
Three Trends
You must access three trends over time to find a Blue Ocean strategy. These three trends must be decisive for your business, irreversible, and have a clear direction. You can also watch more than one trend at a time—for example, a technology disruption, the rise of a new lifestyle, or a change in regulatory or social environments. But usually, only one or two will impact your business.
Once you have identified an important trend, look across time and ask what the market would look like if the trend continued to its conclusion. Then, you can identify what must be changed today to unlock a new Blue Ocean by working back from that vision.
An Example
For example, Apple observed the flood of illegal music file-sharing in the late 90s, such as Napster, which had built a global internet base by downloading more than 2 billion music files every month. While the recording industry fought to stop the cannibalization of physical CDs, illegal digital music downloading continued to grow.
With the technology out there to digitally download music free instead of paying $19 on average per CD, the trend toward digital music was evident. Also, the fast-growing demand for MP3 players that played mobile digital music, such as Apple’s iPod, underscored this trend. Apple capitalized on this solid trend with a clear track trajectory by launching the iTunes online music store in 2003.
iTunes buyers were free to browse 200,000 songs, listen to 30-second samples, and download an individual song for $.99 or an entire album for $99.99. Because people could buy at a reasonable price, iTunes solved a key consumer problem: having to buy an entire CD when they only wanted one or two songs on the CD.
The process is about discovering, not predicting, or preempting industry trends. It is also not a trial-and-error process of implementing wild new business ideas that happen to come across managers’ minds or intuitions. Instead, managers are engaged in a structured method of re-ordering market realities in a fundamentally new way.
Some Questions
What current trends are highly likely to impact your industry, are irreversible, and have a clear trajectory?
How could these trends impact your industry?
Based on this trajectory, could you increase customer value?